Trading with Larry Live

Only 37% of S&P 500 stocks trade above their 50-day moving average, the lowest since the start of April, even as the index grinds sideways near highs. Clint Brewer opens on a signal Larry Benedict had flagged too: RSP, the equal-weight version of the S&P 500, topping out on a day when the headline index kept climbing. Clint reads it as the unwind of a pattern that's held for most of the year — money rotating in to buy whatever part of the market was showing weakness, which is why the broader market hasn't seen real capitulation days. He argues that pattern is now breaking down, describing aggressive, fast sector-to-sector rotation he calls "the quant space," since no human is trading that fast. Eric Shamilov follows with a second way to see the same breakdown. RSP treats every stock the same weight — Nvidia counts the same as Walmart — instead of letting a handful of mega-caps carry the cap-weighted index. Eric pairs that with a more direct breadth measure: the share of individual S&P 500 stocks trading above their own 50-day moving average. That number sits at 37% right now, the lowest reading since the start of April, when the index was still working through the depths of an earlier sell-off. In plain terms, more than six out of ten stocks in the S&P 500 are below their own trend line, even while the index itself hasn't given up much ground. Eric's framing: think of the index level as the paint job and breadth as the foundation. The paint still looks fresh. The foundation underneath it is cracking. Clint's response reframes the setup as a warning rather than a green light. He calls it a "fat pitch," a trade that looks almost too easy to take, which is exactly what makes him suspicious of it. His line: "if it's obvious, it's obviously wrong." When deterioration this visible sits right out in the open, that's often the moment the crowd gets caught leaning the same direction right before conditions shift. Clint isn't arguing the breadth data is wrong — he's arguing that everyone can see it, and that consensus itself is a reason to slow down before acting on it. Neither host puts a number on when the divergence resolves. The tell they're both pointing to is the same one: watch whether the index price catches down to what breadth has already been showing, or whether breadth quietly repairs itself instead. ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/

The bond market called Bessent's bluff on Trading With Larry Live, sending the 30-year yield higher after he tripled his bond buyback to $6 billion. Eric Shamilov and Clint Brewer break down why the bond market didn't buy Bessent's latest intervention. The 30-year Treasury yield breaks out to its highest level since 2007, oil trades back above $100 a barrel on Iran's escalation, and the latest producer price index comes in hot at 5.4% year-over-year. KEY QUESTIONS Why did bond yields rise after Bessent tripled his bond buyback to $6 billion? Eric Shamilov explains that Bessent's first bond-buyback move got reversed within two days over concerns about circular financing. This time, on September 9, 2026, traders decided $6 billion against $40 trillion in public debt "is not going to do anything," sending the 30-year yield higher instead of lower. Is the U.S. facing a sovereign debt crisis? Clint Brewer, who has called sovereign debt a bubble for the 20-plus years he's been an analyst, points to debt-to-GDP at 120% right now, the highest level since World War II. What does falling S&P 500 market breadth mean for the rally? Eric Shamilov notes only 37% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average, the lowest reading since the start of April, and calls it a sign the rally's foundation is crumbling. MARKET SNAPSHOT: As of September 2026: WTI crude above $100 per barrel; 30-year Treasury yield at its highest level since 2007; PPI +5.4% year-over-year headline, +4.6% core; only 37% of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average; U.S. debt-to-GDP at 120%. CHAPTERS 0:00 PPI, Oil Above $100, And Iran's Next Move 1:48 Is Sovereign Debt The Real Bubble? 3:37 Bessent Triples The Bond Buyback To $6 Billion 5:32 The Bond Market Calls Bessent's Bluff 11:34 RSP And The Breakdown In Market Breadth 16:05 Only 37% Of The S&P Is Above Its 50-Day 19:25 Trading Fed Odds And CPI On Kalshi 24:08 The Stocks Hiding At 52-Week Lows 29:42 Micron's Bollinger Band Flashes A Warning 31:09 Watching The Dollar Index Into CPI WATCH NEXT Why No One Is Buying Our Bonds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ty3pajFzcCI Where Are the Downside Volume Days? NYSE Breadth Signal Explained: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogUYxdpOYlM Fed, Inflation & Interest Rates: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJazk_1wSKko #LarryBenedict #BondMarket #SovereignDebt #MarketBreadth ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/

A quarter-point Fed rate hike would send the 10-year yield down, not up, according to Larry Benedict's read of how bond markets actually react. A viewer asked whether a 25-basis-point Fed hike would push the 10-year yield lower. Larry Benedict's answer runs opposite to the obvious guess. He argues that if the Fed hikes a quarter point, longer-end yields actually fall, because the market gets the move it was bracing for and treats the Fed as out of the way. Skip the hike, he says, and yields spike instead, because the uncertainty itself is what the market was pricing. From there the conversation turns to Treasury Secretary Bessent's public comment, "I am the house, don't bet against me," and Larry and Eric Shamilov work through what actually sits behind it. A weak yen sets off a carry-trade unwind: Japanese holders sell US Treasuries to cover the move. A strong yen, pushed higher by the Bank of Japan raising its own rates, works differently but lands in the same place. Cash gets repatriated back into Japan, which again means less demand, and more selling pressure, on US Treasuries. Larry's read is that Bessent isn't rooting for the yen to move in either direction. His actual goal, in Larry's telling, is a Goldilocks outcome: no yen volatility at all, because either direction ends up leaning on Treasuries. Larry closes with a real caveat rather than an absolute claim. He doesn't think yen moves are the single force driving the bond market. He calls it one real factor among several, worth watching but not worth overweighting on its own. For anyone trying to read Treasury yields off currency markets, that distinction, between a contributing factor and the whole story, is the actual lesson here. For more on what's driving the Fed's next move, watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4V2Gn2jOWU DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/ #Treasuries #FedRateDecision #YenCarryTrade #BondMarket

Oil is trading near $96 a barrel in the US-Iran standoff, and Larry Benedict argues neither side actually wants the conflict to end. A fake headline claiming a strike on Kharg Island briefly spiked crude before it was denied, and Larry Benedict points to that spike as proof of how jumpy oil trading has become around this war. His argument runs against the obvious read. The US says it wants out, but Larry says if that were true, the strikes would look different: real destruction, real casualties. Instead he describes hits landing mostly on abandoned buildings, with no meaningful death toll by his account. That gap, between the stated goal and the actual damage, sits at the center of his analysis. Larry's read on why the war keeps stalling has nothing to do with Washington. He argues Iran and the power structure around it are the ones with the incentive to keep the conflict going, because staying inside an ongoing standoff is easier than governing through the fallout of ending it. He points back to the war's early days as evidence: internal efforts to topple the regime failed then, and in his words, if they couldn't get it done on day one, they're not getting it done on day 150. His conclusion is blunt. Nobody in this standoff is actually losing power, so nobody has a real reason to end it. He also flags Iran's economy as part of the backdrop, citing an inflation rate he puts around 300 percent, by his own account, using it to underline how counterintuitive it is that the country would choose to prolong a costly conflict rather than negotiate its way out. Trading a headline-driven conflict like this one takes discipline most retail traders skip. Larry breaks down how he reads a jumpy tape without getting whipsawed by every rumor. For more on this standoff and everything else moving markets today, watch the full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrTppH34qes DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/ #Iran #OilMarkets #Geopolitics #TradingWithLarryLive

Eric Shamilov says the AI bubble is real but nobody's looking in the right place — Larry Benedict isn't sure it exists, on Trading With Larry Live. Recorded September 9, 2026, the hosts also weigh in on oil back near triple digits, an Iran standoff neither side seems ready to end, and the Nasdaq technical levels shaping Larry's next trade. Fed rate-hike odds are climbing as Kevin Warsh talks tough on inflation without controlling the vote. KEY QUESTIONS Where exactly is the AI bubble? Larry Benedict doesn't think there is one — it isn't pervading society, and nobody's long equities here. Eric Shamilov locates the real risk in the assumptions: hyperscalers financing the AI build-out with debt against projections that can shift overnight. Why is Larry Benedict leery of a stock market rally? The short side has worked since last Thursday, but Benedict says he covered around current levels — he's leery of a rally, and expects the technical levels to be in play today. Is there a clean end to the U.S.-Iran standoff? Benedict and Shamilov doubt it — the U.S. wants out 100% and can't get out, while Iran and the powers around it read that as a strategic error to exploit and may prefer the conflict running. MARKET SNAPSHOT As of September 2026: oil near $96 per barrel; the VIX in the 13-14 handle as volatility ticks up; Fed funds futures pricing roughly 64% odds of a rate hike, up from about 60%. CHAPTERS 0:00 Open 0:41 Bitcoin, Gold, And The Dollar Diverge 1:42 Larry Turns Leery Of A Rally 2:45 Oil, Iran, And The War With No Exit 10:00 Warsh, The Fed, And The Vote He Can't Control 11:10 Does One Fed Move Even Matter 12:58 Fed Funds Odds And A Kalshi Arbitrage 17:40 Is The Market Overdone To The Downside 18:24 S&P Versus Nasdaq On The Technical Levels 19:38 The AI Bubble Nobody Can Locate 22:26 What A Fed Hike Means For The 10-Year 23:57 Bessent, The Yen, And The Treasury Feedback Loop 30:01 Nasdaq Sell Levels Into The Close WATCH NEXT Nvidia Earnings and the Biggest Bubble Larry Has Seen in 40 Years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLNnynWOSzM Is Inflation Still Too High? Warsh Questions the Data Behind Fed Decisions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4V2Gn2jOWU Oil, Energy & Geopolitics: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLVE2294OB3rs #LarryBenedict #AIBubble #FedRateHike #OilPrices ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/

Larry Benedict says the market doesn't correct so much as rotate — and one overweighted stock, Micron, is swinging 5% a day and dragging the index with it. His thesis: real sell-offs are rare because capital never truly leaves the market. It just rotates between a handful of overweighted, high-volume names, story to story, day to day. That rotation can look like broad index direction when it's really just one or two stocks doing the heavy lifting. Micron is his live example. A move of five percent in either direction, in a single session, isn't normal behavior for a stock its size — but Larry says it's become routine. He pegs Micron's daily swings as carrying roughly five times the index influence of a much larger name like Nvidia on an average day, simply because of how heavily it's traded and weighted right now. When Micron rips, the index looks strong. When it drops, the index looks weak. Neither move necessarily reflects what's happening across the broader market. He backs that read with a second diagnostic: options pricing. A $27 straddle on a name moving the way Micron moves tells Larry that traders are pricing in far less risk than the backdrop actually carries. If volatility were priced honestly, that straddle would cost more. Instead, the options market is treating a genuinely volatile setup as calm — which he reads as complacency, not safety. The takeaway: before trusting any index move, check whether one outsized, heavily-traded name is doing the actual moving, and check whether options pricing reflects real risk or just recent quiet. Larry treats both as diagnostics, not signals to trade on their own — his read on positioning, not a guarantee of what happens next. Watch the full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6A6ZedZyq6g #LarryBenedict #MicronStock #OptionsVolatility #StockMarket ABOUT LARRY BENEDICT Larry Benedict, a 40-year market veteran and former billionaire hedge fund manager who delivered a 20-year winning streak to his clients now helps everyday traders profit with a risk-focused approach to options, volatility, and macro trading. ABOUT ERIC SHAMILOV Eric Shamilov, a veteran trader with over a decade of experience, began his career trading commodities for Henry Kaufman's family office and later became the head trader of a quant-focused macro desk. He studied at NYU's Stern School of Business and is a member of the Economic Club of New York. ABOUT CLINT BREWER Clint Brewer is a 20-year investment veteran who managed over $2 billion in assets incorporating quantitative, fundamental, and technical disciplines and provided research for Fidelity, Capital Group, and Citadel. Clint also holds a bachelor's and a master's degree in finance. DISCLOSURE Investing always involves risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. Past results do not guarantee future results. Trading With Larry Live is presented by Opportunistic Trader, a publishing company. The indicators, strategies, reports, articles, and all other features of our products - including these videos - are provided for informational and educational purposes only. We operate in accordance with the SEC's "publisher's exclusion" from certain securities laws. To qualify for this exclusion from securities licensing, we must be a "bona fide" publisher that offers non-individualized investment advice to the general public on a regular basis. Under no circumstances should you construe anything that appears in videos, newsletters, reports, or on our website as personalized investment advice. For more information visit our website at https://www.opportunistictrader.com/trading-with-larry-benedict/